2020 Undecided Election Stress -Fears Addressed

 

2020 Undecided Election Stress - Fears Addressed 

November 5, 2020

Henry T. Hill

 

With the 2020 presidential election undecided as of 11/5/2020, citizens face the stress of a possible two months of lawsuits. The Electoral College electors meet on the December Monday after the second December Wednesday of presidential election years. So, electors meet in their state capitals December 14, 2020 to cast ballots and officially elect the next president and citizens how all contested election issues will have been settled. All states follow a winner take all of electoral votes except for Nebraska and Maine whose electoral votes are proportionally allocated.

Why did the founding fathers put Article II, Section 1, Clauses 2 and 3 in the Constitution? The members of the Constitutional Convention meeting in Philadelphia from May 25 through September 17, 1787 with James Madison and Alexander Hamilton leading and with George Washington as president of the convention presented the American people in their thirteen American states with a republican constitution based on the separation of powers with three branches, endorsing legislative supremacy. The map below shows the United States as of August 1789 with 13 states.

“Constitutional Convention (United States).” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 3 Nov. 2020, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitutional_Convention_(United_States).

The members of the Constitutional Convention knew that no national government had fought and won the American Revolution. 13 colonies with their own governments had organized and fought the British. These 13 governments go back to 1607 for Virginia, 1620 for Massachusetts, New Hampshire 1629, Connecticut 1636, Rhode Island 1663, Delaware 1664, New York 1664, New Jersey 1664, Pennsylvania 1681, Maryland 1632, North Carolina 1712, South Carolina 1712, and Georgia 1732. So, for the members of the Constitutional Convention the question was how do we create a national government that will protect and incorporate the strengths of the thirteen states and keep the unity intact? Looking at history the members of the Convention saw how easily nations could slip into chaos if a tyrant could take control and/or if elections became so corrupt that the13 governments and the new governments that would soon be created could leave the new national government.

The Electoral College:

·       creates a buffer between the population and the selection of the President

·       creates the sense that the entire state is voting for a candidate

·       gives extra power to the smaller states because each state has at least three votes

Alexander Hamilton wrote in the Federalist Papers (68)

It was equally desirable, that the immediate election should be made by men most capable of analyzing the qualities adapted to the station, and acting under circumstances favorable to deliberation, and to a judicious combination of all the reasons and inducements which were proper to govern their choice. A small number of persons, selected by their fellow-citizens from the general mass, will be most likely to possess the information and discernment requisite to such complicated investigations. It was also peculiarly desirable to afford as little opportunity as possible to tumult and disorder. This evil was not least to be dreaded in the election of a magistrate, who was to have so important an agency in the administration of the government as the President of the United States. But the precautions which have been so happily concerted in the system under consideration, promise an effectual security against this mischief.

Hamilton, Alexander. “Federalist Papers: Primary Documents in American History: Federalist Nos. 61-70.” Library of Congress Research Guides, Library of Congress, 14 Mar. 1788, guides.loc.gov/federalist-papers/text-61-70.

September 28, 1787 the members of the Constitution Convention voted to transmit the Constitution to state legislatures for submitting to state ratification conventions in each state. The U.S. Constitution was ratified through a series of state conventions held in 1787 through 1788, and on June 21, 1788 the Constitution became the official framework of the government of the United States of America. Today, the U.S. Constitution is the oldest written constitution in operation in the world. The first presidential election under the Constitution was held December 15, 1788 to January 10, 1789. George Washington was inaugurated President in New York City April 30, 1789.

Politicians and public speakers repeat the phrase, “All votes count.” Speakers should amend the phrase to read, “All legal votes count.” For citizens to continue to believe in the integrity of the voting process, the election board administrators must maintain strict controls to maintain the perception that only legal votes count. If the 2020 election ends up contested and unclear a sizable portion of the population could insist that Trump or Biden really won the election. The longer the election outcome stays contested the less likely the general public will consider the outcome fair and legitimate. With this perception citizens begin to question the legitimacy of the electoral system and the US government itself for three reasons:

·       Contested elections damage political myths of elections resulting in a government guided by “the will of the people.”

·       Contested elections present the theoretical and moral problem of a “tie vote” and “majority rule.”

·       Contested elections present the image of rigged, unfair and unreliable elections.

The façade of consensus dissolved with the 2000 election when the Supreme Court had to step in to decide the election. Supreme Court justice John Paul Stevens said the Supreme Court ruling in Bush v. Gore stripped away the “nonpolitical Illusion” of the court. A contested election puts the above factors into play and on display and addresses the phrase “of the people” and addresses the claims made by the winning candidates that they have a “mandate” to legislate their programs which will probably be intrusive, expensive and freedom-reducing. Abraham Lincoln received 1,866,425 out of a total of 4,490,024 or about 42% of the total vote. The Civil War followed. Can a nation of 330 million people remain united?

McMaken, Ryan. “Close Elections Force Us to Ask Unpleasant Questions about Democracy: Ryan McMaken.” Mises Institute, Mises Instutute, 30 Oct. 2020, mises.org/wire/close-elections-force-us-ask-unpleasant-questions-about-democracy.

What comes next? Biden or Trump must understand the strain these events have placed on the American people and work to heal and unite the nation. A vote for a candidate may mean a vote against the other candidate. What does a 51 to 49 split mean at the national level and even in some states:

U.S National Vote as of 11/5 – Biden 72,440,615 vs. Trump 68,894,239 or 50.4% vs. 48%

California – Biden 7,912,482 vs. Trump 3,987,415

New York – Biden 3,694,125 vs. Trump 2,848,068

Illinois – Biden 2,922,733 vs. Trump 2,265,052

Washington – Biden 2,130,017 vs, Trump 1,327,658

Wisconsin – Biden 1,630,542 vs. Trump 1,610,007

Florida – Trump 5,658,404 vs. Biden 5,283,904

Texas – Trump 5,856,594 vs. Biden 5,207,513

Ohio – Trump 3,074,418 vs. Biden 2,603,731

Indiana – Trump 1,690,008 vs. Biden 1,197,188

Missouri – Trump 1,711,848 vs. Biden 1,242,851

In the 2016 election Wikipedia estimates that 230,931,921 Americans were eligible to vote but only 136,669,276 or 59.2% voted.

“Voter Turnout in the United States Presidential Elections.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 4 Nov. 2020, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_the_United_States_presidential_elections.

For the 2020 election, Americans eligible to vote equal 239,247,182 with only 141,334,854 or 59% who voted. What about the 97,912.328 eligible voters who did not vote? They will have to pay any new taxes, follow new regulations, obey new laws and more. According to the 68 page “The Untold Story of American Non-Voters,” A Knight Foundation Study, several themes emerged:

Many non-voters suffer from a lack of faith in the election system and have doubts about the impact of their own votes.

Non-voters engaged less with news and are left feeling under informed.  

While less partisan, non-voters are more evenly divided on key issues and candidates.

The emerging electorate is even less informed and less interested in politics.

Non-voters have lower civic engagement

Non-voters see the voting process as easy but annoying.

Non-voter does not like the candidates.

“The Untold Story of American Non-Voters.” The 100 Million Project from The Knight Foundation , A Knight Foundation Study, 18 Feb. 2020, knightfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/The-100-Million-Project_KF_Report_2020.pdf.

Where do we go from here?