China and Russia - Fears Addressed

 China and Russia - Fears Addressed

October 31, 2020

Henry T. Hill

The nations that control the oceans control seven-tenths of the surface of the earth and the air above and the resources below. 

 

How big are the oceans?

The Pacific Ocean at 63.8 million square miles is bigger than all the land masses on earth (see the map) and is 9,600 miles from Antarctica to the Bering Strait and 12,000 miles wide from the coasts of Columbia to the Malay Peninsula. The Atlantic Ocean at 41.1 million square miles is 5,500 miles wide between Mexico and Spain and 11,000 miles from Greenland to Antarctica. The Mediterranean Sea is 965,300 square miles and is 2,300 miles long and 500 miles at its widest. The only ocean exits from the Mediterranean Sea are the 8 mile wide Strait of Gibraltar and the Suez Canal. The Arctic Ocean is 5.4 million square miles and borders the United States, Canada, Greenland (Denmark), Norway, Finland, Iceland, Sweden and Russia and is the smallest of the world’s five major oceans: Pacific, Atlantic, Indian, Arctic and Southern Ocean. The Southern Ocean extends from Antarctica to a line of latitude of 60 degrees South according to the U.S. Board on Geographic Names as proposed to the International Hydrographic Organization in 2000. 

Russia has one major port on the Pacific at Vladivostok and is linked to the Trans-Siberian Railway. Vladivostok is 121 miles from the Chinese border, 141 miles from North Korea and 478 miles from Japan and 5,772 miles by train from Moscow. Russia has one ice-free harbor on the Arctic Ocean at Murmansk. Murmansk is 1,200 miles from Moscow. Archangel, another Russian port on the Arctic Ocean is 600 miles from Moscow. Russia has a major port in Saint Petersburg on the Baltic Sea bordered by Finland, Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Germany and Denmark. Baltic opens into the Kattegat through the Danish Straits into the North Sea. Russia has a large naval base in the Black Sea at Sevastopol on the Crimean peninsula. This Black Sea is bordered by the Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey and Georgia and covers 168,500 square miles and is 730 miles long.The Black Sea empties through the Bosporus into the the Sea of Marmara and then the Dardanelles into the Mediterranean Sea. The Bosporus is 19 miles long, 2,330 wide at the narrowest and is straddled by the city of Istanbul with its 17 million inhabitants. Below the Bosporus is the Sea of Marmara and then the Dardanelles at 38 miles long and 0.75 to 3.73 miles wide and empties into the Mediterranean Sea. Together the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles form the Turkish Straits.  Russia has two overseas naval bases: Syria and Vietnam. Russia puts nuclear submarines at sea. If war came, the US and our allies would close Russia’s access to the world’s oceans. Their submarines without overseas naval bases would face a massive challenge to survive. Russia is also faced with the problem of having more than 120 ethnic groups many with their own territories speaking some 100 languages comprising one fifth of the Russia’s population. Russia also has long land borders (12,577 miles) with 14 neighbors that must be controlled. 

China stretches 3,200 miles east to west, 3,400 miles north to south, has a long frontier of over 13,000 miles and a coast line of 8,700 miles. China borders 14 countries: North Korea, Russia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Napal, Bhutan, Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam. Not counting Alaska and Hawaii the United States is 2,800 miles east to west and 1,582 miles north to south. The continental United States general coastline is: Atlantic 2,069 miles, Gulf Coast 1,631 miles and Pacific 1,293 for a total of 4,993 miles. Alaska adds 5,580 in the Pacific and 1,060 in the Arctic and Hawaii adds 750 miles. The Tidal shoreline is much greater. 

China has one overseas base in the African country of Dijbouti located on the Horn of Africa bordered by Somalia and Ethiopia and Eritrea and the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden with 8,958 square miles (the size of New Hampshire) and a population of 921,000. 

China faces problems the United States does not face.

According to  Favel, M. Taylor in “Securing Border: China’s Doctrine and Force Structure for Frontier Defense” China contains a core region populated by an ethnic majority (1.2 billion) that is surrounded by periphery of minorities (105 million). Members of the Han Chinese group constitute more than 90 percent of the country’s population, but reside in roughly only 40 percent of the landmass along the coast and river valleys, an area known as ‘inner China’ (neidi) or ‘China proper’. By contrast, a variety of ethnic minorities such as Tibetans or Uighurs account for less than 10 percent of the population, but they live mostly on the other 60 percent of the PRC’s landmass in regions known as ‘outer China’ (waidi) or the ‘frontiers’ (bianjiang).Importantly, many of these minorities, some of whom have pursued independence in the past, are strategically located. They live along 90 percent of China’s borders and many of them have kinsmen who reside in neighboring states. As a result, border security supports efforts to maintain internal stability by limiting the influence of external actors within large parts of the country. Almost half of China’s infantry and armored maneuver units participate in the defense of China’s borders in addition to approximately 225,000 army and paramilitary border guards. 

Favel, M. Taylor. “Securing Border: China’s Doctrine and Force Structure for Frontier Defense.” Mit.edu, The Journal of Strategic Studies, Oct. 2007, web.mit.edu/fravel/www/fravel.2007.JSS.securing.borders.pdf. 

The United States has the longest (5,525 miles) undefended border in the world with Canada and our border with Mexico (1,954 miles) is secure from military threats although the US maintains approximately 4,000 troops, most coming from the National Guard, down from the 5,500 on the Mexican border to assist the Department of Homeland Security. China has to maintain significant military forces in its own country to control its 105 million minorities and its land borders.  

Our ten nuclear-powered Nimitz Class carriers can carry 130 F/A-18 Hornets or 85-90 aircraft of different types such as Super Hornets, Hornets, Growlers for electronic warfare, Greyhounds for logistics, helicopters for submarines, and others. The carriers have their own armament and protection such as  2.5 inch kevlar armor, Sea Sparrow and Phalanx, Sippican (chaff bloom), torpedo defense and countermeasures, radar jamming and deception. The carriers travel in a strike group of six or more other ships such as guided missile cruisers and guided missile destroyers and guided missile frigates, one or two attack submarines and supply ships. Our carriers also carry nuclear weapons.   

We control the oceans with our navy, with our friends, with our overseas bases. China has 1.3 plus billion people, but thanks to China seizing Tibet and threatening other areas in India, India and China are not friends, and India has 1.3 billion people. Now lets add up the populations of democracies starting with the US with 328 million with the European Union's 513 million with Japan's 126 million with South Korea's 51 million with Canada's 37 million with Taiwan's 23 million with Australia's 24 million, with New Zealand's 4.8 million and with Israel's 8.6 million for a total of 1.115 billion not counting India, the world's largest democracy. Now with China's "insensitive" treatment and "reeducation" of their 6 to 50 million Muslim population, China has alienated a percentage of the 1.8 billion Muslim world population. China’s actions in Hong Kong have not made friends. With China's expansion into the South China sea, China has created disputes with Brunei, Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam. I could add these countries as potential friends. If push comes to shove, who will these countries look for support? See the Sino-Vietnamese War  of 1978-1979. And then COVID-19 China's latest gift to the world. The average daily death rate for the world is 7,968 with about 900 a day for the US according to Statista.  

The United States has naval bases in Bahrain, Cuba, Greece, Italy, Japan, Korea, Singapore, Spain and the United Kingdom. The United States has air force bases in Germany, Guam, Italy, Japan, Korea, Spain, Turkey and the United Kingdom. The United States has army bases in Belgium, Germany, Italy, Japan and Korea.  

Add up GDPs for each of our US friends. Add up and measure the military might and add more to those countries that  "punch way above their weight" like the British people have shown, as have the Germans, the Japanese, the Canadians, the South Koreans, the Israelis and others. 

The United States offers the world something very different from Russia and China. The US conquered Mexico (1846-1848) and gave it back, conquered the Philippines (Spanish-American War 1898) - lost it to Japan - took it back - and gave it back to the people of the Philippines, we conquered Japan and gave it back, North Africa, Italy, South Korea, etc. Does anyone believe that China will, without threats or force, give Tibet its freedom? China is the new bully on the block. They advertise it daily in Hong Kong, Tibet, with their own Muslim population and with their own people and by supporting North Korea and other governments such as Iran.   

So can Russia and China defend their own countries? Yes. Can Russia or China take over the oceans of the world namely the Pacific, the Atlantic, the Arctic, the Indian or the Mediterranean Sea? No. Russia and/or China present a challenge to US naval dominance, but that is a challenge we can face.  

When faced with fears, confront those fears with “facts.” Many “generous minded  people,” who share their thoughts too often, have a horror of “facts.” The “generous minded” would rather choose to gather an audience by “crying wolf” and even “claiming the sky is falling” like Henny-penney. “Facts,” the brute beasts of intellectual discourse, end discussion of many topics. 

Remember “This business of conversation is a very serious matter.  There are men that it weakens one to talk with an hour more than a day’s fasting would do.  Mark this that I am going to say, for it is as good as a working professional man’s advice, and costs you nothing: It is better to lose a pint of blood from your veins than to have a nerve tapped.  Nobody measures your nervous force as it runs away, nor bandages your brain and marrow after the operation.” 

Holmes, Oliver Wendell. “THE AUTOCRAT OF THE BREAKFAST-TABLE.” The Autocrat of the Breakfast-Table, by Oliver Wendell Holmes, Http://Www.gutenberg.org/, 1858, www.gutenberg.org/files/751/751-h/751-h.htm. 

 

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