Sea Change 2020 - COVID-19 Pandemic

 Sea Change 2020 - COVID-19 Pandemic

January 1, 2021 

Henry T. Hill

 

What a year - 2020! Between a vicious election campaign that divided Americans and even families and a pandemic that isolated us, we have experienced a sea change, paradigm shift, a world wide zeitgeist. 

 

Sea Change found in William Shakespeare’s “The Tempest” (1610-1611), when the supernatural spirit, Ariel sings to the prince of Naples, Ferdinand after Ferdinand’s father’s apparent death by drowning: 

 

Full fathom five thy father lies,

Of his bones are coral made,

Those are pearls that were his eyes,

Nothing of him that doth fade,

But doth suffer a sea-change,

into something rich and strange,

Sea-nymphs hourly ring his knell,

Ding-dong.

Hark! now I hear them, ding-dong, bell.

 

Paradigm shift appeared when American physicist and philosopher Thomas Kuhn’s in his book, “The Structure of Scientific Revolutions”(1962) used the term, “paradigm shift” to describe fundamental changes in basic concepts and experimental practices in science. Paradigm means members of a certain community that share common beliefs, and paradigm means a single element of a whole that constitutes a “normal” and that “normal” provides a basis for derived “rules” that guide behavior and beliefs. See the duck-rabbit optical illusion made famous by Wittgenstein to demonstrate the way a paradigm shift can cause one to see the same information in entirely different way. 

    

 

Zeitgeist, a concept from the eighteenth to nineteenth century German philosophy means “Spirit of the Age.” 2016 to 2020 election issues and the COVID-19 pandemic have helped create an new emerging “spirit of the age.” 

 

Regarding the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the CDC the United States from January 21, 2020 has had 19,432,124 total cases and 337,419 deaths in a United States population of 328,200,000 or about 1 person for every 1000 people. If one per 1000 deaths were reflected in the world population of 7.594 billion, this would equal 7,591,000,000 divided by 1,000 for world wide COVID-19 death toll of 7,591,000. Both Great Britain and France have experience a death toll of approximately 1 per 1000. 

 

“COVID-19: time for paradigm shift in the nexus between local, national and global health” suggests reactions to the pandemic include “emergency” reactionary actions to mitigate the spread while waiting for a cure and/or a vaccine do not work. A paradigm shift must occur to address this pandemic and future pandemics.  Researchers suggest governments and societies need to respond the the following suggestions:

 

1. Shift focus to the broader global health picture. Experts estimate that four million people in the world die prematurely from chronic respiratory disease each year. The WHO estimates that 650,000 people die from influenza each year, 405,000 die from malaria and 210,000 deaths per year from preventable harm in hospitals. Infectious diseases inspire terror, but researchers estimate that 70% of all deaths come from noncommunicable diseases. Depression affects 300 million and is the leading cause of disability worldwide with 800,000 suicides each year. Researchers suggest that leaders should address COVID-19 as part of a bigger global health picture. The COVID-19 pandemic and containment measures interact and impact other health conditions and have system-wide effects which should lead to  a systems-wide approach to a resolution. 

2. Shift to global health governance. If over 300,000 Americans have died from COVID-19 and if other pathogens will someday threaten to cause this kind of threat, the place to face this threat is not at the borders of the United States but all around the world. Pathogens do not respect borders. A world-wide organization, well funded, systemic, holistic and supported by all nations can address this threat. The place and time to stop a pandemic is right when it starts.  

3. Shift from the ‘Pasteurian Paradigm’ which states that each disease is due to one pathogen with one cure or vaccine to a holistic view of health. With probability of more pathogens in the future, the less the Pasteurian paradigm makes sense. Waiting for the gold standard of research, randomized control trials isolating one variable from all possible variables, will not work. A multitude of evidence indicates that beyond a single pathogen the development of a disease and its outcome follows from physical and social parameters affected by social, political, environmental and individual factors. The frontiers between communicable and non-communicable diseases has blurred by evidence of ‘biosocial contagion.’ The world faces a ‘syndemic,’ a synergy of epidemics that co-occur in time and place and interact with each other to produce complex sequences and share common underlying societal drivers affecting mortality rates by age, sex and comorbidities. Leaders should address symptomatic issues, upstream causes and determinants to limit environmental factors, protect biodiversity, reduce social health inequalities, strengthen local health systems for preventive health, help populations reduce individual risk factors and augment natural immunity through healthy behaviors and diets. 

4. Shift from global solutions to local adaptations. No copy-pasted program will work in all places. Local health systems with policies tailored to local specificities including local environments applied to pandemics like COVID-19 will work. Coronaviruses, well known and rapidly identified, with COVID-19 has caused the semi-collapse of health systems which reveals a profound lack of national prevention and preparedness with the lack of equipment and critical care beds. Aggressive government austerity policies that looked to establish technical efficiency by minimizing inputs and increasing outputs decreased capacity of health systems to respond to above-average demands. Imposing state-wide or even country-wide lockdowns where only one of two epidemic outbreaks separated by hundreds of miles do not make sense especially if health officials respond with quick and determined containment. Measures that impose too coercive behaviors risk legal constraints and become counterproductive, erode public trust and public cooperation. 

 

The governor and state legislature of Florida have opened the state. Local business impose suggested policies such as masks and social distancing. Public response to businesses which fail to enforce these suggestions quickly appear in social media and are spread by word-of-mouth. If a person holds more concern, react appropriately. Walt Disney World in Florida is open. See “Know Before You Go” video and What You Need to Know Before You Go at https://disneyworld.disney.go.com/experience-updates/

 

As a 77 year old Florida resident with, in remission, a serious chronic disease, Amyloidosis AL, but in good health otherwise, I wear a mask where requested, go to church, go to doctor appointments, go to a store when necessary, go occasionally to a restaurant to eat outside and spend time outside. I will not work out at a gym, go to a movie (the movies are open in Florida), eat at a buffet, attend a large concert, go to bar unless I can sit outside, attend a wedding or a funeral, travel by plane, hug or shake hands, allow anyone to visit inside only outside on the lanai, have dinner at someone’s house, shop at a mall, walk in a busy area and any other activity I consider a risk. Florida is open, but my health is my health and I am responsible to myself to stay healthy. Many people forget rule number one “Try to stay alive.” Many people forget rule number two: “Try to stay as healthy as possible.”    

 

My son lives in Silicon Valley near San Francisco in California and my daughter lives in a suburb of Portland, Oregon. Good friends live in western New York state. Governors and state legislatures of California and Oregon and New York have effectively shut down their states. According to “CDC COVID Data Tracker” as of December 31, 2020 California had an average daily cases per 100k in the last seven days of 91.9 to rank first by states, New York at 65 to rank 8th by states, New York City at 50.3 to rank 24th with the states, Florida at 46.5 to rank 29th by states  and Oregon at 21.3 to rank 48th by states. Assuming the same COVID-19 in these states, assuming the same scientific knowledge, what presents the difference. 

California, New York, New York City and Oregon have Democrat governors, mayor and legislatures while Florida has Republican governor and legislature. California, New York, New York City and Oregon have shut down businesses while Florida is open for business - same COVID-19 and same science. 

References

 

“CDC COVID Data Tracker.” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 30 Dec. 2020, covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/. 

“CDC COVID Data Tracker.” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 31 Dec. 2020, covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/. 

“Paradigm Shift.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 26 Dec. 2020, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradigm_shift. 

Paul E, Brown GW, RiddeV. COVID-19: time for paradigm shift in the nexus

between local, national and global health. BMJ Global Health 2020;5:e002622. doi:10.1136/bmjgh-2020-00262

“Sea Change (Idiom).” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 5 Dec. 2019, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_change_(idiom). 

“Zeitgeist.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 31 Dec. 2020, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeitgeist.