What We Can Learn From Sports and The Weather Channel

 What We Can Learn From Sports and The Weather Channel

February 5, 2021

Henry T. Hill

Disclaimer: 

I have noticed people following the “news” and experiencing very stressful reactions. The reaction to 24 hour “Breaking News,” to the stress of the COVID pandemic and to the US election create a “Perfect Storm” for many people. To face this storm one must us the buffering effect of a sense of coherence. Sense of coherence (SOC) offers the perception of life as comprehensible and manageable and that life challenges offer a potential source of growth which show characterization by resistance, flexibility and a unifying outlook on life guiding actions and feelings to shape one’s future according to “Impact of COVID-19 on Public Mental Health and the Buffering Effect of a Sense of Coherence.” To achieve SOC apply the examples used in sports and the Weather Channel. Stop watching and listening to “news” that does not follow the sports and Weather Channel example. Use Transactional Analysis to achieve: “I’m OK, The World is OK.”

“Get Up!” ESPN’s weekdays sports talk a two hour (8 am - 10 am ET) morning television program hosted by Mike Greenberg and broadcast live from their studio in Pier 17 at New York’s South Street Seaport on the East River along with guests presents an analysis of past sports events and presents educated documented predictions of future sports events. The Weather Channel (TWC), launched in 1982 and broadcast live from Atlanta, Georgia, presents an analysis of past weather events and presents educated documented predictions of future weather events. Both sports “Get Up!”  and the Weather Channel present intelligent conversation using: 

• researcher accepted, verified and verifiable statistics

• peer reviewed historical documented information

• human experts with primary (eye-witness) and secondary (researched) experience

• researcher accepted peer reviewed mathematical models to evaluate performances 

• evaluations and predictions with the following underling constant stated and understood mantra, “We do not know the future”  

 

 “Get Up” and the Weather Channel (TWC) present a window into reality and away from the window of the fantasy world of so many “news” shows.

Many “News” shows with their anchors and reporters so often:

• do not cite researcher accepted, peer reviewed and verifiable statistics

• do not cite peer reviewed historical documented information

• do not cite human experts either primary or secondary

• do not cite researcher accepted peer reviewed named mathematical models to evaluate performances to prove their predictions 

• do assert their statements with the following underling constant stated and understood mantra, “We do not know the future.” Instead, many “News” shows present evaluations and predictions with the constantly stated and “understood mantra of,  “We do know the future, and We are telling you the truth.” 

“News” in the past attempted to answer five questions about documented events: 

1. Who is the event about?

2. What happened at the event?

3. When did ithe event  happen?

4. Where did the event happen?

5. Why did the event  happen? 

A sixth question, “How did the event happen?” may have been covered by the “what”and/or “where” and/or “when” question. 

Think of the enormous effort researchers use to reconstruct an airplane crash to learn how and why the airplane crashed and to learn the lessons that will prevent that sequence of events from causing more airplane crashes. Imagine if we engaged in the same efforts to discover the reason for highway crashes that in 2019 totaled 36,120, fatalities or an average of 100 deaths per day and in 2010 of the 5,419,000 crashes killed 32,999 and injured 2,239,000. Records indicate that from 1899 to 2013 over 3,613,000 people died in motor vehicle fatalities in the United States. The CDC reports that traffic deaths from motor vehicle traffic crashes in one year result in $55 billion in medical and work loss costs. Somehow these tragic events do not warrant society to address these highway accidents the same way the 347 civil aviation deaths in 2017 and the 393 aviation deaths in 2018. 

When did News become “News?” Born in 1943 I remember our first television set. News was fifteen minutes a day from John Cameron Swayze. Imagine if fifteen minutes a day on all television channels was all the national and international news. Well, we have so many channels that have to fill up 24 hours seven days a week. So News became “News. 

What can we do?

Look for and watch researched discussions like Sports and like the Weather Channel. 

Stop watching “News.”

Use Transactional Analysis

Transactional Analysis developed by Eric Berne in the late1950’s presents a model that you can apply to yourself and your internal dialogue. According to Berne, we all have inside us an Adult, a Parent and a Child. How we react to ourselves and to others and to situations both internal and external reflects whether we act as an Adult, a Parent or a Child. A Parent establishes rules and expectations and enforces compliance complete with penalties and expects and believes that a rule based world can exist. A Child makes demands and expects the world to respond and may throw tantrums when those demands are not met. The Adult strives to see the world both inside and outside in the most observable and measurable and scientific and rational manner and then responds to that world only after significant thought knowing that the learned perception is not complete and may and probably has misconceptions which make a response not a simple matter of (Parent) “right or wrong” or a simple matter of (Child) “I want or don’t want this.” To the Adult, the perceived world is always changing and filled with a “fog” that doesn’t go away. To the Adult all decisions and all actions have unintended consequences, and those decisions and actions have a situational or “for now” nature which makes them subject to change. 

Take charge of every thought, internal dialogue and action by filtering them with the Adult, Parent and Child to determine in which mode - Adult, Parent or Child you are operating, and if in a Parent or Child mode, stop and change to an Adult mode. We all live in the created world inside our head, but in the Parent and Child mode, that world is filled with fantasies that take valuable psychic energy to maintain because they are “false to the facts.” Children believe in magic and wishes. Parents believe that they are in charge and can really control the world around them with rules and orders. Adults strive to see the world of chaos filled with unexplained events around them and in them. Adults strive to see that the “tools” they have of science and technology and industry and laws give some control but need constant adjustment to react to change because the “for now” world changes before the last sound of “now” fades away. In fact, is there any “Now” in the world? Parents and Children see a stable world and seek to maintain that stable world and seek to continue to live in that stable world.  

Transactional Analysis (TA) offers the follow suggestions for looking at a conversation whether with another person or with yourself and the world: 

1. I’m OK, You’re OK. 

2. I’m OK, You’re Not OK. 

3. I’m Not OK, You’re OK. 

4. I’m Not OK, You’re Not OK. 

What if you engaged in an internal dialogue with yourself and the world that went like this:

1. I’m OK, The World is OK.

2. I’m OK, The World is Not OK.

3. I’m Not OK, The World is OK.

4. I’m Not OK, The World is Not OK. 

If you assume these conditions, numbers 2, 3 and 4 lead to unhealthy and unproductive results. 

For number 2. I’m OK, The World is not OK. The “I’m OK” is good even if you are experiencing peripheral neuropathy (PN) pain because you are facing the PN pain day by day, so you are OK with what you have and what you face every day. The second part, “The World is not OK “ presents a perception that at some time in the past the world was OK or sometime in the  future the world will be different and “OK” according to who and according to your expectations.

The following list of ongoing world crises include: world hunger, poverty, global warming - climate change, mental health issues, weapons of mass destruction, terrorism and wars. 

World hunger and poverty present a different problem when taken out of war zones. Many experts estimate that the world’s farmers produce enough food to feed 1.5 times the global population. So why does hunger still exist? Food loss occurs because of insufficient skills, natural calamities, lack of proper infrastructure and poor practices. Food waste occurs when edible food in intentionally discarded by consumers who fail to plan meals properly and store food correctly. An inefficient food distribution system and food uses other than for human consumption account for significant food lost to human consumption. The production of ethanol which takes productive food producing land and converts the corn grown into fuel. Food for pets also uses land that could produce human food. Throughout both world wars the Victory Garden campaign produced significant quantities of food. In 1942 approximately 15 million families planted victory gardens. By 1944 an estimated 20 victory gardens produced 8 million tons of food which equaled 40% of all fresh fruits and vegetables consumed in the United States according to “America’s Patriotic Victory Gardens.” So is “World Hunger” a Malthusian reality that since population growth is potentially exponential while the growth of food supply or other resources is linear? No and to see why read the Intelligent Economist January 2020 article, “Malthusian Theory of Population.” So as far as,  “The World Is Not OK” and World Hunger and the Poverty that goes along with that concept, “The World Is OK.” because people can solve this problem with existing technology and existing science.  

As far as global warming - climate change read the photocopied newspaper article and magazine articles and letters found at “Wrong Again: 50 Years of Failed Eco-pocalyptic Predictions.” Of course we have climate change and of course the human use of fossil fuels and other human activities have had and will continue to have an effect on climate. The question is what, when and to what degree will the effect happen. The question is how will humans adapt to the change. If you are reading this while experiencing chronic pain, should global warming - climate change really mean that, “The World is Not OK?’ 

As far as weapons of mass destruction, terrorism and wars, look at the current situation. Wars are going on right now in Syria, Afghanistan, Kurdish-Turkish conflict, Somali Civil War, War on Terror, Dafur, Kivu Conflict, Mexican Drug War, Boki Haram Insurgency and Yemeni Civil War (See “List of wars by death tool” Wikipedia) and history shows that wars have gone on, are going on and will continue to go on so as long as you do not live in a war zone or fight in a war zone the World was OK, is Ok and probably will be OK as far as weapons of mass destruction, terrorism and wars. To understand what really makes the world safe for the United States look at this: “Normally, ballistic missile submarines such as the USS Tennessee go to sea with 20 Trident II D-5 submarine-launched missiles, each carrying 4-5 W76 or W-88 warheads. Each W76 warhead has an explosive yield of 90 kilotons, or 90,000 tons of TNT.” Only six countries deploy nuclear-powered strategic submarines: the United States, Russia, France, the United Kingdom, China and India.


I put mental health issues last as a cause of “The World is Not OK” because we know too much; we have too many voices screaming to be heard by yelling, “The sky is falling.” Being born in 1943, my first memories of news came from newspapers and magazines. The first television station to serve my home town from Rochester, New York started in June of 1949 when WHAM-TV broadcasted to the 1,200 TV sets in the Rochester area. In 1950 there were 58,000 TV sets in the Rochester area. The first television station to serve my home town from Buffalo, New York started May 14, 1948 and was the fifth-oldest station in New York state. To receive the television signal from Rochester or Buffalo required my dad to hire someone to put a twenty foot pole on the roof with the television antenna attached and run the wire down to the living room. The television set cost from $200 to $550 in 1950 when a new Ford car cost $1339 to $2,262 and a house cost $7,150 and average income was $3,206 a year. We got our first set in 1953 or 1954. Before that we listened to the radio. I remember that at first television was not broadcast all day. We tuned in a test pattern before the broadcasting began. The fifteen minutes of news was presented by John Cameron Swayze who hosted NBC’s first television newscast in 1949.


Today “news” channels present 24 hours of “news.” Stop listening. Stop watching. Researchers suggest that stress, worry and fear aggravate mental health issues. Examine your stress, your worry and your fear and determine if the causes represent Unsane thoughts. If so, don’t indulge in thoughts that generate stress, worry and fear. There is news that could save your life. From 1206-1368 the Mongols conquered the largest empire in world history by killing between 20 to 57 million or about 5% of the world’s population by battles, sieges, massacres and biological warfare. If you were alive in any of the following countries when the Mongols were coming, the news of their coming and your subsequent actions could save your life. The countries were: Russia, China, the Ukraine, Burma, Korea, all of Central Asia, India, Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Bulgaria, Hungary and Poland. But today, Genghis Khan or Kublai Khan are not leading the Golden Horde toward you in the United States and none of the “news” enhanced and glorified threats are likely to “get” you. If you still have some “unnamed” concerns, from Outdoor Life see “9 Ways to Survive an EMP Attack (And Other Doomsday Scenarios to Watch For.”


Use mindfulness. So is the world OK? Yes, “The World is OK.” So are you OK? Yes. So keep thinking and saying, “I’m OK, The World is OK.” Filter every possible input with “I’m OK, The World is OK” including: thoughts, internal dialogue, external conversations, events, experiences and environments. “Take Charge! Just Do It!”

References

MacWelch, Tim. “9 Ways to Survive an EMP Attack (And Other Doomsday Scenarios to Watch For).” Outdoor Life, 11 May 2015, www.outdoorlife.com/emp-survival-9-ways-prepare-electro-magnetic-pulse/

Motor vehicle fatality rate in U.S. by year. (2020, November 16). Retrieved January 27, 2021, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year

Norton, R. (n.d.). Unintended Consequences. Retrieved January 26, 2021, from https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc1/UnintendedConsequences.html

Schäfer, Sarah K., et al. “Impact of COVID-19 on Public Mental Health and the Buffering Effect of a Sense of Coherence.” Psychotherapy and Psychosomatics, Karger Publishers, 18 Aug. 2020, www.karger.com/Article/FullText/510752. 

State-Specific Costs of Motor Vehicle Crash Deaths. (2020, November 05). Retrieved January 27, 2021, from https://www.cdc.gov/transportationsafety/statecosts/

Szczepanski, Lukasz. Assessing the Skill of Football Players Using Statistical Methods. Salford Business School, University of Salford, Salford UK, Jan. 2015, core.ac.uk/download/pdf/82967744.pdf. 

Turaru, Radu, and Howard Viney. “Valuations of Soccer Players from Statistical Performance Data.” ResearchGate, Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, Jan. 2010, www.researchgate.net/publication/46554859_Valuations_of_Soccer_Players_from_Statistical_Performance_Data. 

For more Amazon Books by Henry T. Hill "Mindfulness vs Disease and Debilitating Symptoms Such As Pain, Fatigue and Loss of Coordination" and “My Journey From Amyloidosis AL to Chemo to Peripheral Neuropathy and How I Used Mindfulness Learning Tools to Improve My Quality of Life” and “Freedom and Existence: A Collection of Essays” Henrythill@gmail.com

Sea Change 2020 - COVID-19 Pandemic

 Sea Change 2020 - COVID-19 Pandemic

January 1, 2021 

Henry T. Hill

 

What a year - 2020! Between a vicious election campaign that divided Americans and even families and a pandemic that isolated us, we have experienced a sea change, paradigm shift, a world wide zeitgeist. 

 

Sea Change found in William Shakespeare’s “The Tempest” (1610-1611), when the supernatural spirit, Ariel sings to the prince of Naples, Ferdinand after Ferdinand’s father’s apparent death by drowning: 

 

Full fathom five thy father lies,

Of his bones are coral made,

Those are pearls that were his eyes,

Nothing of him that doth fade,

But doth suffer a sea-change,

into something rich and strange,

Sea-nymphs hourly ring his knell,

Ding-dong.

Hark! now I hear them, ding-dong, bell.

 

Paradigm shift appeared when American physicist and philosopher Thomas Kuhn’s in his book, “The Structure of Scientific Revolutions”(1962) used the term, “paradigm shift” to describe fundamental changes in basic concepts and experimental practices in science. Paradigm means members of a certain community that share common beliefs, and paradigm means a single element of a whole that constitutes a “normal” and that “normal” provides a basis for derived “rules” that guide behavior and beliefs. See the duck-rabbit optical illusion made famous by Wittgenstein to demonstrate the way a paradigm shift can cause one to see the same information in entirely different way. 

    

 

Zeitgeist, a concept from the eighteenth to nineteenth century German philosophy means “Spirit of the Age.” 2016 to 2020 election issues and the COVID-19 pandemic have helped create an new emerging “spirit of the age.” 

 

Regarding the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the CDC the United States from January 21, 2020 has had 19,432,124 total cases and 337,419 deaths in a United States population of 328,200,000 or about 1 person for every 1000 people. If one per 1000 deaths were reflected in the world population of 7.594 billion, this would equal 7,591,000,000 divided by 1,000 for world wide COVID-19 death toll of 7,591,000. Both Great Britain and France have experience a death toll of approximately 1 per 1000. 

 

“COVID-19: time for paradigm shift in the nexus between local, national and global health” suggests reactions to the pandemic include “emergency” reactionary actions to mitigate the spread while waiting for a cure and/or a vaccine do not work. A paradigm shift must occur to address this pandemic and future pandemics.  Researchers suggest governments and societies need to respond the the following suggestions:

 

1. Shift focus to the broader global health picture. Experts estimate that four million people in the world die prematurely from chronic respiratory disease each year. The WHO estimates that 650,000 people die from influenza each year, 405,000 die from malaria and 210,000 deaths per year from preventable harm in hospitals. Infectious diseases inspire terror, but researchers estimate that 70% of all deaths come from noncommunicable diseases. Depression affects 300 million and is the leading cause of disability worldwide with 800,000 suicides each year. Researchers suggest that leaders should address COVID-19 as part of a bigger global health picture. The COVID-19 pandemic and containment measures interact and impact other health conditions and have system-wide effects which should lead to  a systems-wide approach to a resolution. 

2. Shift to global health governance. If over 300,000 Americans have died from COVID-19 and if other pathogens will someday threaten to cause this kind of threat, the place to face this threat is not at the borders of the United States but all around the world. Pathogens do not respect borders. A world-wide organization, well funded, systemic, holistic and supported by all nations can address this threat. The place and time to stop a pandemic is right when it starts.  

3. Shift from the ‘Pasteurian Paradigm’ which states that each disease is due to one pathogen with one cure or vaccine to a holistic view of health. With probability of more pathogens in the future, the less the Pasteurian paradigm makes sense. Waiting for the gold standard of research, randomized control trials isolating one variable from all possible variables, will not work. A multitude of evidence indicates that beyond a single pathogen the development of a disease and its outcome follows from physical and social parameters affected by social, political, environmental and individual factors. The frontiers between communicable and non-communicable diseases has blurred by evidence of ‘biosocial contagion.’ The world faces a ‘syndemic,’ a synergy of epidemics that co-occur in time and place and interact with each other to produce complex sequences and share common underlying societal drivers affecting mortality rates by age, sex and comorbidities. Leaders should address symptomatic issues, upstream causes and determinants to limit environmental factors, protect biodiversity, reduce social health inequalities, strengthen local health systems for preventive health, help populations reduce individual risk factors and augment natural immunity through healthy behaviors and diets. 

4. Shift from global solutions to local adaptations. No copy-pasted program will work in all places. Local health systems with policies tailored to local specificities including local environments applied to pandemics like COVID-19 will work. Coronaviruses, well known and rapidly identified, with COVID-19 has caused the semi-collapse of health systems which reveals a profound lack of national prevention and preparedness with the lack of equipment and critical care beds. Aggressive government austerity policies that looked to establish technical efficiency by minimizing inputs and increasing outputs decreased capacity of health systems to respond to above-average demands. Imposing state-wide or even country-wide lockdowns where only one of two epidemic outbreaks separated by hundreds of miles do not make sense especially if health officials respond with quick and determined containment. Measures that impose too coercive behaviors risk legal constraints and become counterproductive, erode public trust and public cooperation. 

 

The governor and state legislature of Florida have opened the state. Local business impose suggested policies such as masks and social distancing. Public response to businesses which fail to enforce these suggestions quickly appear in social media and are spread by word-of-mouth. If a person holds more concern, react appropriately. Walt Disney World in Florida is open. See “Know Before You Go” video and What You Need to Know Before You Go at https://disneyworld.disney.go.com/experience-updates/

 

As a 77 year old Florida resident with, in remission, a serious chronic disease, Amyloidosis AL, but in good health otherwise, I wear a mask where requested, go to church, go to doctor appointments, go to a store when necessary, go occasionally to a restaurant to eat outside and spend time outside. I will not work out at a gym, go to a movie (the movies are open in Florida), eat at a buffet, attend a large concert, go to bar unless I can sit outside, attend a wedding or a funeral, travel by plane, hug or shake hands, allow anyone to visit inside only outside on the lanai, have dinner at someone’s house, shop at a mall, walk in a busy area and any other activity I consider a risk. Florida is open, but my health is my health and I am responsible to myself to stay healthy. Many people forget rule number one “Try to stay alive.” Many people forget rule number two: “Try to stay as healthy as possible.”    

 

My son lives in Silicon Valley near San Francisco in California and my daughter lives in a suburb of Portland, Oregon. Good friends live in western New York state. Governors and state legislatures of California and Oregon and New York have effectively shut down their states. According to “CDC COVID Data Tracker” as of December 31, 2020 California had an average daily cases per 100k in the last seven days of 91.9 to rank first by states, New York at 65 to rank 8th by states, New York City at 50.3 to rank 24th with the states, Florida at 46.5 to rank 29th by states  and Oregon at 21.3 to rank 48th by states. Assuming the same COVID-19 in these states, assuming the same scientific knowledge, what presents the difference. 

California, New York, New York City and Oregon have Democrat governors, mayor and legislatures while Florida has Republican governor and legislature. California, New York, New York City and Oregon have shut down businesses while Florida is open for business - same COVID-19 and same science. 

References

 

“CDC COVID Data Tracker.” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 30 Dec. 2020, covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/. 

“CDC COVID Data Tracker.” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 31 Dec. 2020, covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/. 

“Paradigm Shift.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 26 Dec. 2020, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradigm_shift. 

Paul E, Brown GW, RiddeV. COVID-19: time for paradigm shift in the nexus

between local, national and global health. BMJ Global Health 2020;5:e002622. doi:10.1136/bmjgh-2020-00262

“Sea Change (Idiom).” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 5 Dec. 2019, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_change_(idiom). 

“Zeitgeist.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 31 Dec. 2020, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeitgeist.